一、電動自行車用鋰電池發展現狀

（一）鋰電(dian)自(zi)行車在國(guo)內(nei)發展現狀

      目前，鋰(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)應用于電(dian)(dian)(dian)動(dong)自(zi)行(xing)車(che)已經較為普遍，每年(nian)在國(guo)內(nei)生產(chan)與銷售的電(dian)(dian)(dian)動(dong)自(zi)行(xing)車(che)產(chan)品當(dang)中，已經有超(chao)過幾十(shi)萬輛(liang)(liang)采用了鋰(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)作為動(dong)力驅(qu)動(dong)。2006年(nian)，國(guo)內(nei)鋰(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)自(zi)行(xing)車(che)產(chan)銷量約為4萬輛(liang)(liang)左右，而到(dao)2010年(nian)，這一數字已經達到(dao)了12萬輛(liang)(liang)。

雖然電動車用鋰電池在產銷量上每年都在增長，但相對于鉛酸蓄(xu)電池的份額，鋰電自行車在所有電動自行車中所占的比重只有4%，處于較低的水平。

據行(xing)業人士估計(ji)，目前中國電動自行(xing)車行(xing)業的發展趨向于鋰(li)電車將取代部分(fen)鉛酸車的發展方向，因此，鋰(li)電自行(xing)車預計(ji)將在幾(ji)年之內突破百萬輛。

（二）、鋰電自行車(che)在國際市場(chang)的發展現狀

由于國外對電動自行車產品需求的特殊性，鋰電自行車在國際市場的受歡迎程度高于國內，從相關數據中我們可以看出，國內鋰電自行車從2006年出口1萬輛發展到2010年的28.2萬輛，其增長速度較快。
因此，對于鋰電市場來說，呈現出了一個鮮明的特征，即外銷的增長快于內銷增長，外貿企業的發展也快于內貿企業。

目前(qian)，國(guo)內有眾多(duo)鋰(li)電池(chi)、鋰(li)電自(zi)行(xing)(xing)車(che)生產(chan)企(qi)(qi)(qi)業將主(zhu)要(yao)市場(chang)定位于國(guo)際市場(chang)，在電動自(zi)行(xing)(xing)車(che)整車(che)企(qi)(qi)(qi)業中，力霸皇、新日、綠源、捷奧比、途爾(er)、喜德盛、捷安(an)特、寶(bao)島等企(qi)(qi)(qi)業都以專(zhuan)業生產(chan)鋰(li)電自(zi)行(xing)(xing)車(che)為方向，并著力開拓海外鋰(li)電市場(chang)，這部分企(qi)(qi)(qi)業的鋰(li)電自(zi)行(xing)(xing)車(che)產(chan)品在國(guo)際市場(chang)的出口量占有很(hen)大比例(li)。

二、電(dian)動自(zi)行車行業鋰電(dian)板(ban)塊格(ge)局、品(pin)牌(pai)格(ge)局

（一）中國電(dian)動(dong)自(zi)行車(che)用鋰(li)電(dian)產業(ye)板塊(kuai)格局

中(zhong)國鋰(li)電產(chan)業經(jing)過多年的發展，目前已(yi)經(jing)形成了包括江(jiang)蘇(su)、浙江(jiang)、上海(hai)、天津(jin)、廣東等幾大(da)板塊，在這幾大(da)區域內，集中(zhong)分布著(zhu)眾多鋰(li)電池(chi)生(sheng)產(chan)企業與鋰(li)電自(zi)行(xing)車生(sheng)產(chan)企業。幾大(da)板塊在產(chan)銷量(liang)上的狀況為(wei)，蘇(su)錫(xi)常(chang)地(di)區占(zhan)(zhan)據(ju)45%的市場，浙江(jiang)永康占(zhan)(zhan)20%，上海(hai)占(zhan)(zhan)15%，天津(jin)占(zhan)(zhan)15%，深圳(zhen)占(zhan)(zhan)5%。

       幾大板塊中，江蘇板塊以鋰電池產(chan)品的研發(fa)(fa)(fa)、設計為特(te)色，特(te)別是(shi)在蘇州、昆(kun)山等(deng)地(di)，外(wai)(wai)資企(qi)業眾多，這(zhe)些企(qi)業引(yin)進(jin)國(guo)外(wai)(wai)先進(jin)研發(fa)(fa)(fa)技(ji)術，成為其最突出的優勢，江蘇板塊(kuai)主(zhu)(zhu)要分布著(zhu)捷奧比、星恒等(deng)企(qi)業；天(tian)津(jin)板塊(kuai)由于一(yi)直以來作為自行(xing)車企(qi)業的集(ji)聚地(di)，其生(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)能力(li)一(yi)直位于電(dian)動車行(xing)業的前列(lie)，因此，天(tian)津(jin)板塊(kuai)以制(zhi)造方面的優勢為鋰電(dian)產(chan)業帶來了發(fa)(fa)(fa)展的可能性，天(tian)津(jin)板塊(kuai)主(zhu)(zhu)要分布著(zhu)科斯特(te)、美(mei)麗行(xing)等(deng)企(qi)業；廣(guang)東板塊(kuai)憑借深圳這(zhe)一(yi)電(dian)子科技(ji)最為發(fa)(fa)(fa)達的基地(di)，匯(hui)集(ji)了包(bao)括(kuo)研發(fa)(fa)(fa)、生(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)能力(li)領先的眾多企(qi)業，這(zhe)也為廣(guang)東板塊(kuai)鋰電(dian)產(chan)業的發(fa)(fa)(fa)展奠定了基礎，廣(guang)東板塊(kuai)主(zhu)(zhu)要分布著(zhu)喜德盛(sheng)、精進(jin)能源、毅(yi)力(li)能源等(deng)企(qi)業。

（二）中國電動(dong)自行車用鋰電行業(ye)品牌(pai)格局(ju)

中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)電(dian)(dian)動(dong)自行(xing)(xing)車(che)(che)(che)用(yong)鋰(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)池(chi)行(xing)(xing)業(ye)相對(dui)并(bing)不(bu)(bu)成熟(shu)，品(pin)牌數量也(ye)并(bing)不(bu)(bu)多。鋰(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)自行(xing)(xing)車(che)(che)(che)企(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)，一(yi)(yi)(yi)部(bu)(bu)分是從(cong)(cong)傳統自行(xing)(xing)車(che)(che)(che)企(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)轉型而(er)來(lai)，另一(yi)(yi)(yi)部(bu)(bu)分從(cong)(cong)鉛酸(suan)電(dian)(dian)動(dong)車(che)(che)(che)橫向(xiang)擴張而(er)來(lai)，主(zhu)要(yao)企(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)有：捷(jie)安特、阿米尼、新(xin)日(ri)、飛鴿、凱特、順(shun)地、雅哥弟(di)、大行(xing)(xing)、力霸王、途爾、普利司通(tong)、捷(jie)奧比、喜(xi)德(de)(de)盛、小羚羊(yang)、綠能(neng)(neng)、卡(ka)摩等(deng)，其中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)，市場占(zhan)有率最大的(de)(de)品(pin)牌是捷(jie)安特與(yu)(yu)飛鴿。電(dian)(dian)動(dong)自行(xing)(xing)車(che)(che)(che)用(yong)鋰(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)池(chi)生產企(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)，一(yi)(yi)(yi)部(bu)(bu)分是從(cong)(cong)生產鉛酸(suan)蓄電(dian)(dian)池(chi)轉型而(er)來(lai)，另一(yi)(yi)(yi)部(bu)(bu)分則是專門從(cong)(cong)事鋰(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)池(chi)研發與(yu)(yu)生產的(de)(de)企(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)，主(zhu)要(yao)有：星恒、比亞迪、迪耐特、潤峰、天能(neng)(neng)、振(zhen)龍(long)、萬好萬家(jia)、光(guang)宇、中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)投、精進能(neng)(neng)源、漢維、力神(shen)、毅力、雷天、同大、航(hang)力源、雙一(yi)(yi)(yi)力、捷(jie)威、德(de)(de)朗能(neng)(neng)、南都等(deng)。近年來(lai)，由于國(guo)家(jia)對(dui)新(xin)能(neng)(neng)源產業(ye)的(de)(de)支持力度加大，對(dui)“超標”電(dian)(dian)動(dong)車(che)(che)(che)的(de)(de)加強管(guan)理，以及對(dui)全國(guo)范圍內鉛酸(suan)蓄電(dian)(dian)池(chi)行(xing)(xing)業(ye)的(de)(de)整治，使(shi)得鋰(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)產業(ye)獲得了一(yi)(yi)(yi)定的(de)(de)機遇(yu)，眾多企(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)加入到鋰(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)池(chi)產品(pin)的(de)(de)開發與(yu)(yu)生產中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)來(lai)，市場上涌(yong)現出一(yi)(yi)(yi)批新(xin)興品(pin)牌。

三、影響鋰電自(zi)行車推廣(guang)的因素分析

（一）產品售后(hou)服(fu)務(wu)不夠完善

首(shou)先由于(yu)鋰(li)電自行(xing)車(che)渠道方(fang)面發育(yu)程度(du)低，產品的(de)(de)售后(hou)服(fu)務并不(bu)完善，解(jie)決消(xiao)費(fei)者(zhe)的(de)(de)后(hou)顧之憂(you)仍然有(you)一(yi)定的(de)(de)空間。造成這一(yi)問題(ti)(ti)的(de)(de)因素有(you)很多，鋰(li)電自行(xing)車(che)與鋰(li)電池(chi)企業的(de)(de)售后(hou)服(fu)務網絡少，消(xiao)費(fei)者(zhe)有(you)問題(ti)(ti)找(zhao)不(bu)到(dao)地方(fang)修；鋰(li)電自行(xing)車(che)售后(hou)服(fu)務配(pei)件少，鋰(li)電池(chi)維護(hu)必須(xu)拿回工廠維護(hu)；此(ci)外，用于(yu)維護(hu)的(de)(de)備用鋰(li)電池(chi)少。另(ling)外，售后(hou)服(fu)務的(de)(de)不(bu)及時、售后(hou)人(ren)員業務不(bu)熟練等(deng)原(yuan)因都是造成消(xiao)費(fei)者(zhe)對鋰(li)電自行(xing)車(che)存(cun)在后(hou)顧之憂(you)的(de)(de)原(yuan)因。

（二）鋰離子電(dian)池組(zu)的(de)安全性和質量的(de)穩(wen)定(ding)性

鋰離子電池組的安全性是鋰電自行車發展成敗的關鍵。目前鋰電池技術方面存在過流、過充、過熱，擠壓、針刺、短路等幾大問題，因此，要提高鋰電池的安全性，必須從這幾方面著手。另一方面，鋰離子電池單級質量的穩定性是制約鋰電自行車推廣的根本原因。目前需要解決的問題有：鋰電池內電阻一致性、鋰電池內電壓一致性、鋰電池電容量一致性；其次，鋰離子電池組裝配工藝的可靠性是影響鋰電自行車推廣的重要因素，其中包括：鋰電池組焊接的可靠性、鋰電池組保護系統焊接的可靠性。目前，電動自行車用鋰電池產品采用的標準為QB/T 2947.3-2009《電動自行車用蓄電池及充電器第3部(bu)分：鋰(li)離子蓄電(dian)池(chi)及充電(dian)器》，在這一標準的基礎上，鋰(li)電(dian)池(chi)產品的通(tong)用性(xing)、互換性(xing)、一致性(xing)等仍需要得到進一步(bu)規范。

（三）鋰電自行車渠道(dao)的完善性

鋰(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)應用(yong)于(yu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)動(dong)自(zi)行(xing)(xing)車(che)的(de)(de)(de)時(shi)間并不長(chang)，生產(chan)鋰(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)自(zi)行(xing)(xing)車(che)的(de)(de)(de)技術(shu)門檻(jian)也相對較(jiao)高(gao)，因此(ci)(ci)，鋰(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)自(zi)行(xing)(xing)車(che)的(de)(de)(de)價格一(yi)直居高(gao)不下，影響(xiang)了其(qi)銷量(liang)的(de)(de)(de)增長(chang)。目(mu)前鋰(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)自(zi)行(xing)(xing)車(che)的(de)(de)(de)市(shi)場(chang)(chang)相對于(yu)鉛酸(suan)車(che)來說相對較(jiao)小(xiao)，而專(zhuan)業銷售鋰(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)自(zi)行(xing)(xing)車(che)的(de)(de)(de)代理商也并不多，渠(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)道網(wang)絡的(de)(de)(de)拓展與完善依然是目(mu)前鋰(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)自(zi)行(xing)(xing)車(che)發展的(de)(de)(de)重心。由于(yu)國內市(shi)場(chang)(chang)需(xu)求的(de)(de)(de)有限性(xing)(xing)(xing)，需(xu)要(yao)鋰(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)自(zi)行(xing)(xing)車(che)產(chan)品有合理的(de)(de)(de)利潤(run)來支持渠(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)道的(de)(de)(de)發展，避免(mian)與鉛酸(suan)車(che)市(shi)場(chang)(chang)一(yi)樣打價格戰，并在此(ci)(ci)基礎上(shang)要(yao)有再(zai)投(tou)入(ru)的(de)(de)(de)部分。在保(bao)證鋰(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)自(zi)行(xing)(xing)車(che)渠(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)道的(de)(de)(de)完善性(xing)(xing)(xing)上(shang)，售后(hou)服務(wu)的(de)(de)(de)有效性(xing)(xing)(xing)的(de)(de)(de)最關鍵因素(su)，其(qi)中包(bao)括：整(zheng)車(che)和零部件的(de)(de)(de)保(bao)修承諾(nuo)、整(zheng)車(che)和零部件維(wei)修更換的(de)(de)(de)及時(shi)性(xing)(xing)(xing)、售后(hou)服務(wu)的(de)(de)(de)主動(dong)性(xing)(xing)(xing)和有效性(xing)(xing)(xing)。除(chu)此(ci)(ci)之(zhi)外，渠(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)道商還(huan)肩(jian)負(fu)著(zhu)推廣鋰(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)自(zi)行(xing)(xing)車(che)的(de)(de)(de)重任。

（四(si)）鋰電自行車產品價格(ge)偏高

目(mu)前(qian)鋰電(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)動(dong)(dong)自(zi)行(xing)車的(de)價(jia)格(ge)(ge)普遍比鉛酸(suan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)動(dong)(dong)車高出幾百元(yuan)到一(yi)千元(yuan)，大(da)多數消費(fei)者難以接受與鉛酸(suan)車如此大(da)的(de)價(jia)格(ge)(ge)差(cha)距，因此銷(xiao)量(liang)并不(bu)(bu)大(da)。鋰電(dian)(dian)(dian)自(zi)行(xing)車雖然有明顯的(de)優(you)勢，但鋰電(dian)(dian)(dian)成本導致的(de)價(jia)格(ge)(ge)居(ju)高不(bu)(bu)下，成了制約其(qi)發展的(de)最大(da)因素，一(yi)組(zu)36V鋰電(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)在國內市場售價(jia)為1500元(yuan)左右，加(jia)上配件等，一(yi)般生產(chan)成本在2800元(yuan)以上，若再加(jia)上營(ying)銷(xiao)等其(qi)他成本，其(qi)價(jia)格(ge)(ge)還遠(yuan)不(bu)(bu)止這個數字，現北京市場上銷(xiao)售的(de)鋰電(dian)(dian)(dian)車普遍價(jia)格(ge)(ge)為3200－3800元(yuan)。業內人士認為，鋰電(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)輕巧、環保，廢棄后不(bu)(bu)會產(chan)生環境(jing)污染，一(yi)旦應用技術成熟(shu)，市場銷(xiao)量(liang)加(jia)大(da)，鋰電(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)動(dong)(dong)自(zi)行(xing)車的(de)價(jia)格(ge)(ge)肯定會降下來。

（五）鋰電池充電器和電池保護功(gong)能(neng)的完(wan)善

鋰電池電動自行車的品質，在很大程度上還是依賴于電動車充電器和(he)(he)電(dian)池保護體的(de)品(pin)質，只(zhi)有當(dang)充(chong)電(dian)器和(he)(he)電(dian)池保護板(ban)的(de)品(pin)質可靠性(xing)和(he)(he)穩定性(xing)提(ti)高了，整(zheng)體的(de)市場銷售(shou)量自然(ran)就增加了。

四(si)、電動(dong)自行車用鋰電池發展前景分析

（一）鋰電(dian)自行車將逐(zhu)漸(jian)普

及目前(qian)被看好的(de)(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)動(dong)(dong)(dong)自(zi)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)車(che)用(yong)新(xin)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源有(you)3種(zhong)：鋰(li)離(li)子蓄(xu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)、氫鎳(nie)蓄(xu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)、鋅空氣電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)，而鋰(li)離(li)子的(de)(de)發(fa)展前(qian)景被普遍認同。在安全性好、循環性能(neng)好、比容量(liang)高(gao)的(de)(de)新(xin)型價廉(lian)正(zheng)極材料的(de)(de)發(fa)展的(de)(de)推(tui)動(dong)(dong)(dong)下，電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)動(dong)(dong)(dong)自(zi)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)車(che)車(che)用(yong)的(de)(de)鋰(li)離(li)子蓄(xu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)已(yi)接近(jin)實用(yong)。有(you)幾家(jia)公司已(yi)可提供較(jiao)成(cheng)熟(shu)的(de)(de)、裝有(you)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)管理系統（BMS）的(de)(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)動(dong)(dong)(dong)自(zi)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)車(che)車(che)用(yong)鋰(li)離(li)子蓄(xu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)。也(ye)有(you)專門生產車(che)用(yong)鋰(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)的(de)(de)蓄(xu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)的(de)(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)動(dong)(dong)(dong)自(zi)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)車(che)的(de)(de)廠家(jia)。很多業(ye)內人(ren)士(shi)認為(wei)，電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)動(dong)(dong)(dong)自(zi)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)車(che)用(yong)的(de)(de)鋰(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)將是(shi)首先商業(ye)化(hua)，成(cheng)為(wei)大(da)(da)批量(liang)在車(che)上使用(yong)的(de)(de)動(dong)(dong)(dong)力(li)型電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)，它將是(shi)繼鉛酸蓄(xu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)之后所占比例較(jiao)大(da)(da)的(de)(de)實用(yong)化(hua)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)，也(ye)將成(cheng)為(wei)用(yong)于高(gao)端電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)動(dong)(dong)(dong)自(zi)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)車(che)產品的(de)(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)。業(ye)內人(ren)士(shi)表(biao)示，節(jie)能(neng)環保是(shi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)動(dong)(dong)(dong)自(zi)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)車(che)的(de)(de)發(fa)展方向，隨著(zhu)技術(shu)的(de)(de)進步，鋰(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)動(dong)(dong)(dong)自(zi)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)車(che)有(you)望取代目前(qian)的(de)(de)鉛酸電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)動(dong)(dong)(dong)自(zi)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)車(che)。鋰(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)輕(qing)巧、環保，廢棄后不會產生環境污染，一旦應用(yong)技術(shu)成(cheng)熟(shu)，市場銷量(liang)加大(da)(da)，鋰(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)動(dong)(dong)(dong)自(zi)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)車(che)的(de)(de)價格(ge)肯(ken)定會降(jiang)下來(lai)。

（二）鋰電自(zi)行(xing)車行(xing)業環(huan)境變化

近幾年(nian)來，政府加強了(le)對電(dian)(dian)動(dong)(dong)自(zi)行(xing)車(che)(che)(che)管理，將部(bu)分電(dian)(dian)動(dong)(dong)車(che)(che)(che)產(chan)品列入了(le)“超(chao)(chao)標”范(fan)疇(chou)，這(zhe)(zhe)使得(de)電(dian)(dian)動(dong)(dong)車(che)(che)(che)輕(qing)量化趨勢得(de)到(dao)(dao)進(jin)一步(bu)推動(dong)(dong)，特別(bie)是今(jin)年(nian)3月份(fen)，國(guo)家(jia)四部(bu)委聯合發(fa)文限期(qi)淘(tao)汰(tai)“超(chao)(chao)標”電(dian)(dian)動(dong)(dong)車(che)(che)(che)，更(geng)(geng)使這(zhe)(zhe)一政策對部(bu)分企(qi)業(ye)造成(cheng)影響(xiang)。在(zai)(zai)(zai)這(zhe)(zhe)一大環境(jing)下(xia)，鋰(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)自(zi)行(xing)車(che)(che)(che)的(de)優勢得(de)到(dao)(dao)了(le)充分體現，輕(qing)便(bian)、小(xiao)巧的(de)鋰(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)自(zi)行(xing)車(che)(che)(che)在(zai)(zai)(zai)全(quan)(quan)國(guo)范(fan)圍內淘(tao)汰(tai)“超(chao)(chao)標”電(dian)(dian)動(dong)(dong)車(che)(che)(che)的(de)背景下(xia)，得(de)到(dao)(dao)了(le)更(geng)(geng)多(duo)消費者(zhe)的(de)認可。并且，在(zai)(zai)(zai)完全(quan)(quan)符合國(guo)家(jia)標準的(de)前(qian)提下(xia)，鋰(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)自(zi)行(xing)車(che)(che)(che)市場必將會得(de)到(dao)(dao)更(geng)(geng)進(jin)一步(bu)的(de)增長。另一方(fang)面(mian)，今(jin)年(nian)以(yi)來，國(guo)家(jia)加強了(le)對鉛(qian)(qian)酸(suan)(suan)蓄(xu)電(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)(chi)生(sheng)產(chan)企(qi)業(ye)的(de)管理，對全(quan)(quan)國(guo)大多(duo)數鉛(qian)(qian)酸(suan)(suan)蓄(xu)電(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)(chi)企(qi)業(ye)進(jin)行(xing)整頓，截(jie)至2011年(nian)7月31日，各(ge)地共(gong)排查鉛(qian)(qian)蓄(xu)電(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)(chi)生(sheng)產(chan)、組裝及回(hui)收(shou)（再生(sheng)鉛(qian)(qian)）企(qi)業(ye)1930家(jia)，其中(zhong)，被(bei)取締關閉583家(jia)、停產(chan)整治405家(jia)、停產(chan)610家(jia)；有252家(jia)企(qi)業(ye)在(zai)(zai)(zai)生(sheng)產(chan)，80家(jia)在(zai)(zai)(zai)建。鉛(qian)(qian)酸(suan)(suan)蓄(xu)電(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)(chi)被(bei)全(quan)(quan)面(mian)整頓，一方(fang)面(mian)說(shuo)明鉛(qian)(qian)酸(suan)(suan)電(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)(chi)在(zai)(zai)(zai)某些方(fang)面(mian)存在(zai)(zai)(zai)著缺陷(xian)，另一方(fang)面(mian)也說(shuo)明，電(dian)(dian)動(dong)(dong)車(che)(che)(che)行(xing)業(ye)急需尋求(qiu)一種更(geng)(geng)新型、更(geng)(geng)環保的(de)電(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)(chi)產(chan)品，而鋰(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)(chi)便(bian)是其中(zhong)最好的(de)選擇。

（三(san)）鋰電(dian)自(zi)行車產品附加值

鋰(li)(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)自(zi)(zi)行(xing)(xing)車(che)(che)產品(pin)附(fu)(fu)加(jia)值(zhi)將在五年內得(de)到(dao)明(ming)顯提升(sheng)(sheng)。鋰(li)(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)自(zi)(zi)行(xing)(xing)車(che)(che)產品(pin)的(de)(de)(de)附(fu)(fu)加(jia)值(zhi)體現在以下幾個方(fang)面：鋰(li)(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)的(de)(de)(de)安全性與一致性、鋰(li)(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)自(zi)(zi)行(xing)(xing)車(che)(che)的(de)(de)(de)一次充(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)續(xu)行(xing)(xing)里程與鋰(li)(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)的(de)(de)(de)使用(yong)壽(shou)命、鋰(li)(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)自(zi)(zi)行(xing)(xing)車(che)(che)的(de)(de)(de)輕(qing)量化、鋰(li)(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)自(zi)(zi)行(xing)(xing)車(che)(che)的(de)(de)(de)智能化技術與傳(chuan)感(gan)技術，此外，鋰(li)(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)自(zi)(zi)行(xing)(xing)車(che)(che)的(de)(de)(de)售后服務等(deng)方(fang)面也是產品(pin)附(fu)(fu)加(jia)值(zhi)的(de)(de)(de)重要一部分。隨著(zhu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)動自(zi)(zi)行(xing)(xing)車(che)(che)用(yong)鋰(li)(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)產品(pin)的(de)(de)(de)發(fa)展，鋰(li)(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)自(zi)(zi)行(xing)(xing)車(che)(che)產品(pin)也將逐(zhu)漸(jian)走向(xiang)成(cheng)熟，因(yin)此，唯有(you)掌握鋰(li)(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)自(zi)(zi)行(xing)(xing)車(che)(che)核心技術，才能真(zhen)正有(you)效(xiao)地提升(sheng)(sheng)其(qi)產品(pin)附(fu)(fu)加(jia)值(zhi)。未(wei)來(lai)幾年內，鋰(li)(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)自(zi)(zi)行(xing)(xing)車(che)(che)將不斷(duan)提升(sheng)(sheng)產品(pin)檔(dang)次，不斷(duan)開(kai)發(fa)迎合(he)市場需求的(de)(de)(de)產品(pin)。

五、電動自行(xing)(xing)車用鋰電池(chi)行(xing)(xing)業發(fa)展趨(qu)勢

（一(yi)）質量提(ti)升與(yu)(yu)技術(shu)(shu)突(tu)破。鋰(li)電池(chi)的(de)技術(shu)(shu)不成(cheng)熟(shu)性(xing)(xing)使得鋰(li)電產(chan)品(pin)的(de)安全(quan)性(xing)(xing)存在缺陷(xian)，以及價格居高不下，從而(er)影響了鋰(li)電自(zi)行車(che)的(de)普及率，因(yin)此，未(wei)來幾年內，鋰(li)電自(zi)行車(che)的(de)發(fa)展趨勢為技術(shu)(shu)突(tu)破與(yu)(yu)成(cheng)本控(kong)制，而(er)鋰(li)蓄電池(chi)安全(quan)控(kong)制技術(shu)(shu)和充電技術(shu)(shu)的(de)提(ti)升將進一(yi)步提(ti)高鋰(li)電自(zi)行車(che)的(de)安全(quan)性(xing)(xing)和可靠性(xing)(xing)。

（二）高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)速(su)電(dian)(dian)機(ji)在鋰電(dian)(dian)自行(xing)車(che)上(shang)的應用(yong)。高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)速(su)電(dian)(dian)機(ji)通常是(shi)(shi)指(zhi)轉速(su)超過10000r/min的電(dian)(dian)機(ji)。它(ta)們(men)具(ju)有(you)以下(xia)優點：一(yi)是(shi)(shi)由于轉速(su)高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)，所(suo)以電(dian)(dian)機(ji)功(gong)率(lv)密度高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)，而體積(ji)遠(yuan)小(xiao)于功(gong)率(lv)普通的電(dian)(dian)機(ji)，可以有(you)效的節約材料(liao)。二是(shi)(shi)可與原動機(ji)相(xiang)連，取(qu)消了傳統的減(jian)速(su)機(ji)構，傳動效率(lv)高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)，噪(zao)音小(xiao)。三是(shi)(shi)由于高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)速(su)電(dian)(dian)機(ji)轉動慣量小(xiao)，所(suo)以動態(tai)相(xiang)應快。高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)速(su)電(dian)(dian)機(ji)在鋰電(dian)(dian)自行(xing)車(che)上(shang)的應用(yong)將(jiang)是(shi)(shi)今后鋰電(dian)(dian)自行(xing)車(che)發展(zhan)的趨勢(shi)之一(yi)，這一(yi)應用(yong)將(jiang)有(you)效地提(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)鋰電(dian)(dian)池的使用(yong)壽命，并提(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)電(dian)(dian)機(ji)效率(lv)。

（三）智(zhi)能傳(chuan)感(gan)(gan)(gan)(gan)技(ji)術的(de)(de)發展(zhan)與(yu)應用(yong)。智(zhi)能傳(chuan)感(gan)(gan)(gan)(gan)器是指由(you)微(wei)處理器（或微(wei)計算機）及(ji)相關電(dian)路組(zu)成的(de)(de)傳(chuan)感(gan)(gan)(gan)(gan)裝置，智(zhi)能傳(chuan)感(gan)(gan)(gan)(gan)技(ji)術的(de)(de)發展(zhan)與(yu)應用(yong)將(jiang)增加(jia)鋰電(dian)自行車(che)的(de)(de)高科技(ji)含量，使電(dian)動車(che)更(geng)智(zhi)能，騎行更(geng)便捷，智(zhi)能傳(chuan)感(gan)(gan)(gan)(gan)技(ji)術包括：力(li)矩傳(chuan)感(gan)(gan)(gan)(gan)技(ji)術、霍爾傳(chuan)感(gan)(gan)(gan)(gan)技(ji)術，以及(ji)光電(dian)傳(chuan)感(gan)(gan)(gan)(gan)技(ji)術。

（四）鋰(li)(li)電(dian)自(zi)(zi)行(xing)車(che)(che)的(de)(de)(de)輕(qing)量化(hua)發展(zhan)。鋰(li)(li)電(dian)自(zi)(zi)行(xing)車(che)(che)相對于(yu)鉛(qian)酸(suan)車(che)(che)來(lai)說，擁(yong)有(you)顯著的(de)(de)(de)輕(qing)量化(hua)的(de)(de)(de)特點(dian)。在此基礎上，今(jin)后鋰(li)(li)電(dian)自(zi)(zi)行(xing)車(che)(che)的(de)(de)(de)這一特點(dian)將(jiang)更加明顯，采用輕(qing)型材料的(de)(de)(de)鋰(li)(li)電(dian)自(zi)(zi)行(xing)車(che)(che)將(jiang)更加輕(qing)便小巧。其中(zhong)，輕(qing)型材料主要有(you)：鋁(lv)合(he)金車(che)(che)架、碳纖維車(che)(che)架、鎂合(he)金車(che)(che)架、鈦合(he)金車(che)(che)架等。

（五(wu)）鋰(li)電(dian)自(zi)行(xing)車(che)(che)(che)市場需(xu)求變(bian)化(hua)。鋰(li)電(dian)自(zi)行(xing)車(che)(che)(che)產品將(jiang)在未來(lai)幾年內得到更多消(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)者的(de)認可，市場需(xu)求將(jiang)加速擴大(da)。主要銷售區(qu)域為各(ge)省會(hui)城(cheng)市與(yu)沿(yan)海發達(da)地區(qu)，這部分區(qu)域的(de)消(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)者對鋰(li)電(dian)自(zi)行(xing)車(che)(che)(che)產品有(you)(you)一(yi)定的(de)了解(jie)，且城(cheng)市化(hua)程度高，對輕便電(dian)動自(zi)行(xing)車(che)(che)(che)的(de)需(xu)求旺盛(sheng)。另外，平原或(huo)小丘陵區(qu)域也(ye)是鋰(li)電(dian)自(zi)行(xing)車(che)(che)(che)的(de)主要市場。鋰(li)電(dian)自(zi)行(xing)車(che)(che)(che)的(de)主要消(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)人群為白領階層、離退休老同志、學生(sheng)等，隨著鋰(li)電(dian)自(zi)行(xing)車(che)(che)(che)產品的(de)普及(ji)，主要消(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)人群將(jiang)會(hui)進一(yi)步擴大(da)，逐(zhu)漸覆蓋所有(you)(you)年齡段(duan)、多數職(zhi)業的(de)消(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)者。

業內人(ren)士表示(shi)，在今后相當一段時(shi)期內，鋰電(dian)自(zi)行車(che)(che)是(shi)中國(guo)電(dian)動(dong)兩輪非機動(dong)車(che)(che)的發展方(fang)向，是(shi)電(dian)動(dong)自(zi)行車(che)(che)生產企業產品(pin)(pin)(pin)結構調整、產品(pin)(pin)(pin)技術進步的重點(dian)(dian)，是(shi)企業掌控(kong)電(dian)動(dong)自(zi)行車(che)(che)核(he)心技術、增(zeng)加(jia)產品(pin)(pin)(pin)附加(jia)值的關(guan)鍵產品(pin)(pin)(pin)，是(shi)企業把控(kong)電(dian)動(dong)自(zi)行車(che)(che)市場制高(gao)點(dian)(dian)，在激烈市場競爭(zheng)中立于不敗之地的最佳產品(pin)(pin)(pin)選(xuan)擇。

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