一、電動自行車用鋰電池發展現狀

（一）鋰電(dian)自行車在國內發展現狀

      目前(qian)，鋰(li)電(dian)(dian)池應用于(yu)電(dian)(dian)動(dong)自行(xing)車已經較(jiao)為普遍，每年在(zai)國內生產(chan)(chan)與銷(xiao)售的電(dian)(dian)動(dong)自行(xing)車產(chan)(chan)品當中，已經有超(chao)過幾十萬輛采用了(le)鋰(li)電(dian)(dian)池作(zuo)為動(dong)力驅動(dong)。2006年，國內鋰(li)電(dian)(dian)自行(xing)車產(chan)(chan)銷(xiao)量約為4萬輛左(zuo)右，而到(dao)2010年，這一數字(zi)已經達到(dao)了(le)12萬輛。

雖然電動車用鋰電池在產銷量上每年都在增長，但相對于鉛酸蓄(xu)電池(chi)的份額，鋰電自行車在所有電動自行車中所占的比重只有4%，處于較低的水平。

據行業人士估計，目前中國電動自行車行業的發展趨(qu)向于鋰(li)電車將取代部(bu)分鉛酸車的發展方向，因(yin)此，鋰(li)電自行車預(yu)計將在幾年之(zhi)內突破百萬(wan)輛(liang)。

（二）、鋰電自(zi)行車在國際市(shi)場的發展現狀

由于國外對電動自行車產品需求的特殊性，鋰電自行車在國際市場的受歡迎程度高于國內，從相關數據中我們可以看出，國內鋰電自行車從2006年出口1萬輛發展到2010年的28.2萬輛，其增長速度較快。
因此，對于鋰電市場來說，呈現出了一個鮮明的特征，即外銷的增長快于內銷增長，外貿企業的發展也快于內貿企業。

目前(qian)，國內有眾多鋰電池、鋰電自(zi)(zi)行(xing)車(che)生產(chan)企(qi)業(ye)將主要市(shi)場定位(wei)于國際(ji)市(shi)場，在電動(dong)自(zi)(zi)行(xing)車(che)整(zheng)車(che)企(qi)業(ye)中，力霸皇、新日、綠源、捷(jie)奧比、途爾(er)、喜(xi)德(de)盛、捷(jie)安(an)特、寶島等企(qi)業(ye)都以專(zhuan)業(ye)生產(chan)鋰電自(zi)(zi)行(xing)車(che)為方向，并(bing)著力開拓海(hai)外鋰電市(shi)場，這部分(fen)企(qi)業(ye)的鋰電自(zi)(zi)行(xing)車(che)產(chan)品在國際(ji)市(shi)場的出(chu)口量占有很大(da)比例(li)。

二、電(dian)動(dong)自(zi)行(xing)車行(xing)業鋰電(dian)板塊格局(ju)、品牌格局(ju)

（一(yi)）中國(guo)電動自行車用鋰(li)電產業板塊格局(ju)

中(zhong)(zhong)國鋰(li)電產(chan)業經(jing)過(guo)多年的發展，目前已(yi)經(jing)形成了包括江(jiang)蘇(su)、浙江(jiang)、上海(hai)、天(tian)津、廣東等幾(ji)(ji)(ji)大(da)(da)板塊，在這幾(ji)(ji)(ji)大(da)(da)區域內，集中(zhong)(zhong)分(fen)布(bu)著眾(zhong)多鋰(li)電池生(sheng)產(chan)企業與鋰(li)電自行車生(sheng)產(chan)企業。幾(ji)(ji)(ji)大(da)(da)板塊在產(chan)銷量上的狀況(kuang)為，蘇(su)錫(xi)常地區占據45%的市場，浙江(jiang)永康占20%，上海(hai)占15%，天(tian)津占15%，深圳占5%。

       幾大板塊中，江蘇板塊以鋰電池產(chan)(chan)品的(de)(de)研(yan)發(fa)、設計(ji)為(wei)(wei)(wei)特色，特別是在蘇州、昆山等地(di)，外資(zi)企業(ye)眾多，這些企業(ye)引進(jin)國外先進(jin)研(yan)發(fa)技術(shu)，成為(wei)(wei)(wei)其最突出(chu)的(de)(de)優(you)勢，江(jiang)蘇板(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)塊主要(yao)分(fen)(fen)布(bu)(bu)著(zhu)(zhu)捷奧(ao)比、星恒(heng)等企業(ye)；天津板(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)塊由于(yu)一直以(yi)來作為(wei)(wei)(wei)自行車企業(ye)的(de)(de)集聚地(di)，其生產(chan)(chan)能(neng)力一直位于(yu)電動車行業(ye)的(de)(de)前列，因此，天津板(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)塊以(yi)制造方面的(de)(de)優(you)勢為(wei)(wei)(wei)鋰電產(chan)(chan)業(ye)帶來了(le)發(fa)展的(de)(de)可能(neng)性(xing)，天津板(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)塊主要(yao)分(fen)(fen)布(bu)(bu)著(zhu)(zhu)科(ke)斯特、美麗行等企業(ye)；廣東板(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)塊憑借(jie)深圳這一電子科(ke)技最為(wei)(wei)(wei)發(fa)達的(de)(de)基地(di)，匯集了(le)包(bao)括研(yan)發(fa)、生產(chan)(chan)能(neng)力領先的(de)(de)眾多企業(ye)，這也(ye)為(wei)(wei)(wei)廣東板(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)塊鋰電產(chan)(chan)業(ye)的(de)(de)發(fa)展奠定了(le)基礎，廣東板(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)塊主要(yao)分(fen)(fen)布(bu)(bu)著(zhu)(zhu)喜德(de)盛(sheng)、精進(jin)能(neng)源(yuan)、毅力能(neng)源(yuan)等企業(ye)。

（二）中國電動自(zi)行車用鋰(li)電行業品牌格局

中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)電(dian)(dian)動(dong)自(zi)(zi)行(xing)車(che)用(yong)鋰(li)(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)池(chi)行(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)相對(dui)并不成熟，品牌數(shu)量(liang)也并不多(duo)。鋰(li)(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)自(zi)(zi)行(xing)車(che)企(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)中(zhong)，一(yi)部分(fen)是(shi)(shi)從傳統(tong)自(zi)(zi)行(xing)車(che)企(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)轉型而(er)來，另(ling)(ling)一(yi)部分(fen)從鉛(qian)酸電(dian)(dian)動(dong)車(che)橫向擴張而(er)來，主要企(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)有：捷安(an)特(te)、阿米(mi)尼、新(xin)日、飛鴿、凱特(te)、順(shun)地、雅哥弟、大行(xing)、力(li)霸王、途爾、普利司(si)通、捷奧比(bi)、喜德盛、小羚羊、綠能(neng)、卡摩等，其中(zhong)，市(shi)(shi)場(chang)占有率(lv)最大的(de)(de)品牌是(shi)(shi)捷安(an)特(te)與飛鴿。電(dian)(dian)動(dong)自(zi)(zi)行(xing)車(che)用(yong)鋰(li)(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)池(chi)生(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)企(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)中(zhong)，一(yi)部分(fen)是(shi)(shi)從生(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)鉛(qian)酸蓄(xu)電(dian)(dian)池(chi)轉型而(er)來，另(ling)(ling)一(yi)部分(fen)則是(shi)(shi)專門從事鋰(li)(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)池(chi)研發(fa)與生(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)的(de)(de)企(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)，主要有：星(xing)恒(heng)、比(bi)亞迪、迪耐特(te)、潤峰、天(tian)能(neng)、振龍、萬好萬家(jia)、光(guang)宇、中(zhong)投(tou)、精(jing)進能(neng)源、漢維、力(li)神(shen)、毅力(li)、雷天(tian)、同大、航力(li)源、雙(shuang)一(yi)力(li)、捷威、德朗能(neng)、南都等。近年來，由于國(guo)(guo)家(jia)對(dui)新(xin)能(neng)源產(chan)(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)支持力(li)度加(jia)(jia)(jia)大，對(dui)“超標”電(dian)(dian)動(dong)車(che)的(de)(de)加(jia)(jia)(jia)強管理(li)，以及(ji)對(dui)全國(guo)(guo)范圍內鉛(qian)酸蓄(xu)電(dian)(dian)池(chi)行(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)整治，使得(de)鋰(li)(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)產(chan)(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)獲得(de)了一(yi)定的(de)(de)機遇，眾多(duo)企(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)加(jia)(jia)(jia)入到鋰(li)(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)池(chi)產(chan)(chan)(chan)品的(de)(de)開(kai)發(fa)與生(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)中(zhong)來，市(shi)(shi)場(chang)上涌現出(chu)一(yi)批新(xin)興品牌。

三、影響鋰電自行(xing)車(che)推廣(guang)的(de)因素分析(xi)

（一）產品售后(hou)服務(wu)不(bu)夠完善

首(shou)先由于鋰(li)(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)自行(xing)(xing)車(che)渠(qu)道方面發育程度(du)低(di)，產品的(de)(de)售(shou)(shou)后(hou)(hou)服(fu)務(wu)(wu)并不(bu)完善，解決消(xiao)費者(zhe)(zhe)的(de)(de)后(hou)(hou)顧(gu)之(zhi)憂(you)仍(reng)然有(you)一定(ding)的(de)(de)空間。造成這一問(wen)題(ti)的(de)(de)因素有(you)很多(duo)，鋰(li)(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)自行(xing)(xing)車(che)與鋰(li)(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)池企業(ye)的(de)(de)售(shou)(shou)后(hou)(hou)服(fu)務(wu)(wu)網絡少，消(xiao)費者(zhe)(zhe)有(you)問(wen)題(ti)找不(bu)到地(di)方修；鋰(li)(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)自行(xing)(xing)車(che)售(shou)(shou)后(hou)(hou)服(fu)務(wu)(wu)配件(jian)少，鋰(li)(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)池維(wei)護必須(xu)拿(na)回工廠(chang)維(wei)護；此外，用(yong)(yong)于維(wei)護的(de)(de)備用(yong)(yong)鋰(li)(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)池少。另(ling)外，售(shou)(shou)后(hou)(hou)服(fu)務(wu)(wu)的(de)(de)不(bu)及時、售(shou)(shou)后(hou)(hou)人員業(ye)務(wu)(wu)不(bu)熟練(lian)等原因都是造成消(xiao)費者(zhe)(zhe)對鋰(li)(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)自行(xing)(xing)車(che)存在(zai)后(hou)(hou)顧(gu)之(zhi)憂(you)的(de)(de)原因。

（二(er)）鋰離(li)子電池組(zu)的安全性(xing)和質量的穩定(ding)性(xing)

鋰離子電池組的安全性是鋰電自行車發展成敗的關鍵。目前鋰電池技術方面存在過流、過充、過熱，擠壓、針刺、短路等幾大問題，因此，要提高鋰電池的安全性，必須從這幾方面著手。另一方面，鋰離子電池單級質量的穩定性是制約鋰電自行車推廣的根本原因。目前需要解決的問題有：鋰電池內電阻一致性、鋰電池內電壓一致性、鋰電池電容量一致性；其次，鋰離子電池組裝配工藝的可靠性是影響鋰電自行車推廣的重要因素，其中包括：鋰電池組焊接的可靠性、鋰電池組保護系統焊接的可靠性。目前，電動自行車用鋰電池產品采用的標準為QB/T 2947.3-2009《電動自行車用蓄電池及充電器第3部分(fen)：鋰離(li)子蓄電(dian)(dian)(dian)池及充電(dian)(dian)(dian)器》，在這(zhe)一標準的(de)基礎上，鋰電(dian)(dian)(dian)池產品(pin)的(de)通用性(xing)、互換性(xing)、一致性(xing)等仍需要(yao)得到進一步規(gui)范。

（三(san)）鋰電自行車渠道(dao)的完(wan)善性

鋰電(dian)應(ying)用(yong)于電(dian)動(dong)(dong)自(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)行(xing)(xing)車(che)(che)(che)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)時間(jian)并不(bu)長(chang)，生產(chan)(chan)鋰電(dian)自(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)行(xing)(xing)車(che)(che)(che)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)技術門檻也相對較高，因此，鋰電(dian)自(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)行(xing)(xing)車(che)(che)(che)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)價(jia)格(ge)一直居高不(bu)下，影響了其(qi)銷量的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)增長(chang)。目前鋰電(dian)自(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)行(xing)(xing)車(che)(che)(che)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)市場相對于鉛酸(suan)車(che)(che)(che)來(lai)說相對較小，而專業銷售鋰電(dian)自(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)行(xing)(xing)車(che)(che)(che)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)代(dai)理商也并不(bu)多，渠(qu)道(dao)網(wang)絡(luo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)拓(tuo)展(zhan)與完善依然(ran)是目前鋰電(dian)自(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)行(xing)(xing)車(che)(che)(che)發展(zhan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)重(zhong)心。由于國內市場需求的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)有限性(xing)(xing)，需要鋰電(dian)自(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)行(xing)(xing)車(che)(che)(che)產(chan)(chan)品有合理的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)利潤(run)來(lai)支持渠(qu)道(dao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)發展(zhan)，避免與鉛酸(suan)車(che)(che)(che)市場一樣打價(jia)格(ge)戰，并在此基(ji)礎上(shang)要有再投(tou)入的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)部分(fen)。在保證鋰電(dian)自(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)行(xing)(xing)車(che)(che)(che)渠(qu)道(dao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)完善性(xing)(xing)上(shang)，售后(hou)服務(wu)(wu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)有效性(xing)(xing)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)最關鍵(jian)因素，其(qi)中包括(kuo)：整(zheng)車(che)(che)(che)和(he)零部件的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)保修承(cheng)諾(nuo)、整(zheng)車(che)(che)(che)和(he)零部件維(wei)修更換的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)及時性(xing)(xing)、售后(hou)服務(wu)(wu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)主動(dong)(dong)性(xing)(xing)和(he)有效性(xing)(xing)。除此之外，渠(qu)道(dao)商還(huan)肩負著推廣鋰電(dian)自(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)行(xing)(xing)車(che)(che)(che)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)重(zhong)任。

（四）鋰電自行車產品價格偏高

目(mu)前鋰(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)動(dong)自行(xing)車(che)的(de)(de)價(jia)格(ge)普遍比鉛(qian)(qian)酸電(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)動(dong)車(che)高出幾百元(yuan)到一(yi)千(qian)元(yuan)，大多(duo)數消費(fei)者難(nan)以接受與鉛(qian)(qian)酸車(che)如此大的(de)(de)價(jia)格(ge)差距，因此銷量(liang)并不(bu)大。鋰(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)自行(xing)車(che)雖(sui)然(ran)有(you)明顯的(de)(de)優勢，但鋰(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)成本導致的(de)(de)價(jia)格(ge)居高不(bu)下，成了制約其(qi)(qi)發(fa)展的(de)(de)最大因素，一(yi)組36V鋰(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)在國內(nei)市場售價(jia)為1500元(yuan)左(zuo)右(you)，加(jia)上(shang)配件等，一(yi)般生產(chan)成本在2800元(yuan)以上(shang)，若(ruo)再加(jia)上(shang)營銷等其(qi)(qi)他成本，其(qi)(qi)價(jia)格(ge)還(huan)遠不(bu)止這個數字，現北京市場上(shang)銷售的(de)(de)鋰(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)車(che)普遍價(jia)格(ge)為3200－3800元(yuan)。業內(nei)人士認為，鋰(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)輕巧、環保，廢棄后不(bu)會(hui)產(chan)生環境污染，一(yi)旦應用技(ji)術成熟，市場銷量(liang)加(jia)大，鋰(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)動(dong)自行(xing)車(che)的(de)(de)價(jia)格(ge)肯定(ding)會(hui)降下來。

（五）鋰電池充電器和電池保護功能(neng)的完善

鋰電池電動自行車的品質，在很大程度上還是依賴于電動車充電器和電(dian)(dian)池保護(hu)體的(de)品質(zhi)，只有當充電(dian)(dian)器和電(dian)(dian)池保護(hu)板(ban)的(de)品質(zhi)可靠性(xing)和穩定性(xing)提高(gao)了，整體的(de)市場銷售量自然就增加了。

四、電(dian)動自行車用鋰(li)電(dian)池發展前景分(fen)析(xi)

（一）鋰電自(zi)行車將(jiang)逐漸普

及目前被(bei)(bei)看好的(de)(de)(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)自(zi)(zi)(zi)行車(che)用(yong)(yong)新(xin)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)有3種(zhong)：鋰(li)(li)(li)離(li)(li)子(zi)蓄(xu)(xu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)、氫鎳蓄(xu)(xu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)、鋅空氣電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)，而(er)鋰(li)(li)(li)離(li)(li)子(zi)的(de)(de)(de)發(fa)展前景被(bei)(bei)普遍認(ren)(ren)同。在(zai)安全性好、循環性能好、比容量高的(de)(de)(de)新(xin)型價(jia)廉正極(ji)材料的(de)(de)(de)發(fa)展的(de)(de)(de)推動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)下(xia)，電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)自(zi)(zi)(zi)行車(che)車(che)用(yong)(yong)的(de)(de)(de)鋰(li)(li)(li)離(li)(li)子(zi)蓄(xu)(xu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)已接近實用(yong)(yong)。有幾家(jia)公司已可提供較成熟的(de)(de)(de)、裝有電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)管理(li)系統（BMS）的(de)(de)(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)自(zi)(zi)(zi)行車(che)車(che)用(yong)(yong)鋰(li)(li)(li)離(li)(li)子(zi)蓄(xu)(xu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)。也有專門(men)生(sheng)產(chan)車(che)用(yong)(yong)鋰(li)(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)的(de)(de)(de)蓄(xu)(xu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)的(de)(de)(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)自(zi)(zi)(zi)行車(che)的(de)(de)(de)廠家(jia)。很多業(ye)內(nei)人士(shi)認(ren)(ren)為(wei)，電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)自(zi)(zi)(zi)行車(che)用(yong)(yong)的(de)(de)(de)鋰(li)(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)將(jiang)是(shi)首(shou)先商業(ye)化，成為(wei)大(da)批(pi)量在(zai)車(che)上使(shi)用(yong)(yong)的(de)(de)(de)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)力型電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)，它將(jiang)是(shi)繼(ji)鉛(qian)酸蓄(xu)(xu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)之后所占比例較大(da)的(de)(de)(de)實用(yong)(yong)化電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)，也將(jiang)成為(wei)用(yong)(yong)于高端電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)自(zi)(zi)(zi)行車(che)產(chan)品的(de)(de)(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)。業(ye)內(nei)人士(shi)表示(shi)，節能環保(bao)是(shi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)自(zi)(zi)(zi)行車(che)的(de)(de)(de)發(fa)展方向，隨著技(ji)術(shu)的(de)(de)(de)進步，鋰(li)(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)自(zi)(zi)(zi)行車(che)有望(wang)取代目前的(de)(de)(de)鉛(qian)酸電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)自(zi)(zi)(zi)行車(che)。鋰(li)(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)輕(qing)巧、環保(bao)，廢棄后不會(hui)產(chan)生(sheng)環境(jing)污染，一旦應用(yong)(yong)技(ji)術(shu)成熟，市場銷量加大(da)，鋰(li)(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)自(zi)(zi)(zi)行車(che)的(de)(de)(de)價(jia)格(ge)肯(ken)定(ding)會(hui)降下(xia)來。

（二）鋰電自行(xing)車行(xing)業環境變化

近幾年(nian)來(lai)，政府加(jia)強了(le)對電(dian)(dian)(dian)動(dong)自(zi)行(xing)(xing)(xing)車(che)(che)管理，將部(bu)分電(dian)(dian)(dian)動(dong)車(che)(che)產(chan)(chan)品列(lie)入了(le)“超標(biao)”范疇，這使得電(dian)(dian)(dian)動(dong)車(che)(che)輕(qing)量化趨勢(shi)(shi)得到(dao)進一(yi)(yi)步推動(dong)，特別是今(jin)年(nian)3月份，國家(jia)四部(bu)委(wei)聯合(he)發文限期(qi)淘(tao)汰“超標(biao)”電(dian)(dian)(dian)動(dong)車(che)(che)，更(geng)使這一(yi)(yi)政策對部(bu)分企(qi)業(ye)造成影響。在(zai)(zai)這一(yi)(yi)大環(huan)境(jing)下，鋰(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)自(zi)行(xing)(xing)(xing)車(che)(che)的(de)優(you)勢(shi)(shi)得到(dao)了(le)充分體(ti)現，輕(qing)便、小巧的(de)鋰(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)自(zi)行(xing)(xing)(xing)車(che)(che)在(zai)(zai)全(quan)國范圍內(nei)淘(tao)汰“超標(biao)”電(dian)(dian)(dian)動(dong)車(che)(che)的(de)背景下，得到(dao)了(le)更(geng)多(duo)消費(fei)者(zhe)的(de)認可。并且，在(zai)(zai)完全(quan)符(fu)合(he)國家(jia)標(biao)準的(de)前提下，鋰(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)自(zi)行(xing)(xing)(xing)車(che)(che)市場必將會得到(dao)更(geng)進一(yi)(yi)步的(de)增(zeng)長。另一(yi)(yi)方面(mian)(mian)，今(jin)年(nian)以來(lai)，國家(jia)加(jia)強了(le)對鉛酸(suan)蓄電(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)(chi)生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)企(qi)業(ye)的(de)管理，對全(quan)國大多(duo)數鉛酸(suan)蓄電(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)(chi)企(qi)業(ye)進行(xing)(xing)(xing)整(zheng)(zheng)頓，截(jie)至2011年(nian)7月31日，各地共排(pai)查鉛蓄電(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)(chi)生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)、組裝(zhuang)及回收(shou)（再(zai)生(sheng)鉛）企(qi)業(ye)1930家(jia)，其中，被(bei)取(qu)締關閉583家(jia)、停產(chan)(chan)整(zheng)(zheng)治(zhi)405家(jia)、停產(chan)(chan)610家(jia)；有252家(jia)企(qi)業(ye)在(zai)(zai)生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)，80家(jia)在(zai)(zai)建(jian)。鉛酸(suan)蓄電(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)(chi)被(bei)全(quan)面(mian)(mian)整(zheng)(zheng)頓，一(yi)(yi)方面(mian)(mian)說明(ming)鉛酸(suan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)(chi)在(zai)(zai)某些方面(mian)(mian)存在(zai)(zai)著缺陷，另一(yi)(yi)方面(mian)(mian)也說明(ming)，電(dian)(dian)(dian)動(dong)車(che)(che)行(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)急需尋求一(yi)(yi)種更(geng)新(xin)型、更(geng)環(huan)保的(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)(chi)產(chan)(chan)品，而鋰(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)(chi)便是其中最好(hao)的(de)選擇。

（三）鋰電自行(xing)車產(chan)品(pin)附加值

鋰(li)(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)自(zi)行(xing)(xing)車(che)(che)(che)產品(pin)(pin)(pin)附(fu)加值(zhi)將(jiang)在(zai)五年(nian)(nian)內得到明顯提升。鋰(li)(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)自(zi)行(xing)(xing)車(che)(che)(che)產品(pin)(pin)(pin)的附(fu)加值(zhi)體現在(zai)以下幾(ji)個方面(mian)(mian)：鋰(li)(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)池的安全性與一(yi)致(zhi)性、鋰(li)(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)自(zi)行(xing)(xing)車(che)(che)(che)的一(yi)次(ci)充(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)續(xu)行(xing)(xing)里程(cheng)與鋰(li)(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)池的使用壽命、鋰(li)(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)自(zi)行(xing)(xing)車(che)(che)(che)的輕量化、鋰(li)(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)自(zi)行(xing)(xing)車(che)(che)(che)的智(zhi)能化技術(shu)與傳感(gan)技術(shu)，此(ci)外(wai)，鋰(li)(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)自(zi)行(xing)(xing)車(che)(che)(che)的售后服務(wu)等方面(mian)(mian)也是(shi)產品(pin)(pin)(pin)附(fu)加值(zhi)的重要(yao)一(yi)部分(fen)。隨(sui)著電(dian)(dian)(dian)動自(zi)行(xing)(xing)車(che)(che)(che)用鋰(li)(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)池產品(pin)(pin)(pin)的發(fa)展(zhan)，鋰(li)(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)自(zi)行(xing)(xing)車(che)(che)(che)產品(pin)(pin)(pin)也將(jiang)逐漸走向成熟，因此(ci)，唯有掌握鋰(li)(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)自(zi)行(xing)(xing)車(che)(che)(che)核心技術(shu)，才能真(zhen)正有效地提升其產品(pin)(pin)(pin)附(fu)加值(zhi)。未來(lai)幾(ji)年(nian)(nian)內，鋰(li)(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)自(zi)行(xing)(xing)車(che)(che)(che)將(jiang)不(bu)斷(duan)提升產品(pin)(pin)(pin)檔(dang)次(ci)，不(bu)斷(duan)開發(fa)迎合市(shi)場需求的產品(pin)(pin)(pin)。

五(wu)、電動自行車用鋰(li)電池行業發展(zhan)趨勢

（一）質量提(ti)升(sheng)與技(ji)術(shu)(shu)突(tu)破。鋰電(dian)(dian)(dian)池的(de)技(ji)術(shu)(shu)不成熟性(xing)(xing)使(shi)得鋰電(dian)(dian)(dian)產(chan)品的(de)安全性(xing)(xing)存在缺陷，以及價格居(ju)高不下(xia)，從而(er)影響了鋰電(dian)(dian)(dian)自行車的(de)普(pu)及率，因此，未來幾(ji)年內(nei)，鋰電(dian)(dian)(dian)自行車的(de)發展趨勢為技(ji)術(shu)(shu)突(tu)破與成本控制，而(er)鋰蓄(xu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)池安全控制技(ji)術(shu)(shu)和充(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)技(ji)術(shu)(shu)的(de)提(ti)升(sheng)將進一步提(ti)高鋰電(dian)(dian)(dian)自行車的(de)安全性(xing)(xing)和可靠(kao)性(xing)(xing)。

（二）高(gao)(gao)(gao)速(su)電(dian)(dian)機(ji)(ji)在鋰(li)電(dian)(dian)自(zi)行車上的(de)(de)(de)應用(yong)(yong)(yong)。高(gao)(gao)(gao)速(su)電(dian)(dian)機(ji)(ji)通常(chang)是指(zhi)轉速(su)超過10000r/min的(de)(de)(de)電(dian)(dian)機(ji)(ji)。它們具有(you)以下優點：一(yi)是由于轉速(su)高(gao)(gao)(gao)，所以電(dian)(dian)機(ji)(ji)功(gong)率(lv)(lv)密(mi)度(du)高(gao)(gao)(gao)，而體(ti)積遠小于功(gong)率(lv)(lv)普通的(de)(de)(de)電(dian)(dian)機(ji)(ji)，可(ke)以有(you)效的(de)(de)(de)節約(yue)材(cai)料。二是可(ke)與原(yuan)動(dong)機(ji)(ji)相(xiang)連，取消了傳統的(de)(de)(de)減(jian)速(su)機(ji)(ji)構(gou)，傳動(dong)效率(lv)(lv)高(gao)(gao)(gao)，噪音小。三是由于高(gao)(gao)(gao)速(su)電(dian)(dian)機(ji)(ji)轉動(dong)慣量小，所以動(dong)態相(xiang)應快。高(gao)(gao)(gao)速(su)電(dian)(dian)機(ji)(ji)在鋰(li)電(dian)(dian)自(zi)行車上的(de)(de)(de)應用(yong)(yong)(yong)將(jiang)是今后鋰(li)電(dian)(dian)自(zi)行車發展的(de)(de)(de)趨勢之一(yi)，這一(yi)應用(yong)(yong)(yong)將(jiang)有(you)效地提(ti)高(gao)(gao)(gao)鋰(li)電(dian)(dian)池的(de)(de)(de)使用(yong)(yong)(yong)壽命，并提(ti)高(gao)(gao)(gao)電(dian)(dian)機(ji)(ji)效率(lv)(lv)。

（三）智能傳(chuan)(chuan)感技(ji)術的(de)發展與應用。智能傳(chuan)(chuan)感器是指由微(wei)處理(li)器（或微(wei)計算機）及相(xiang)關電(dian)路組成的(de)傳(chuan)(chuan)感裝置，智能傳(chuan)(chuan)感技(ji)術的(de)發展與應用將增加鋰電(dian)自(zi)行(xing)車的(de)高科技(ji)含量，使電(dian)動車更智能，騎(qi)行(xing)更便捷(jie)，智能傳(chuan)(chuan)感技(ji)術包括：力矩傳(chuan)(chuan)感技(ji)術、霍爾傳(chuan)(chuan)感技(ji)術，以及光電(dian)傳(chuan)(chuan)感技(ji)術。

（四）鋰電(dian)自(zi)(zi)行車(che)的輕(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)量化發展。鋰電(dian)自(zi)(zi)行車(che)相(xiang)對(dui)于(yu)鉛酸車(che)來說，擁有顯著的輕(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)量化的特(te)點。在此基(ji)礎上，今后鋰電(dian)自(zi)(zi)行車(che)的這一特(te)點將(jiang)更加(jia)明(ming)顯，采用輕(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)型(xing)材(cai)料的鋰電(dian)自(zi)(zi)行車(che)將(jiang)更加(jia)輕(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)便小巧(qiao)。其中，輕(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)型(xing)材(cai)料主(zhu)要有：鋁合(he)金(jin)車(che)架(jia)、碳纖維車(che)架(jia)、鎂合(he)金(jin)車(che)架(jia)、鈦合(he)金(jin)車(che)架(jia)等(deng)。

（五(wu)）鋰電(dian)自行車市(shi)場需求變(bian)化(hua)(hua)。鋰電(dian)自行車產品將(jiang)在未來幾年內得(de)到(dao)更多(duo)消(xiao)費(fei)(fei)者(zhe)的認可，市(shi)場需求將(jiang)加速擴大(da)。主要銷售區域(yu)為各省會城市(shi)與(yu)沿(yan)海發達地區，這部分區域(yu)的消(xiao)費(fei)(fei)者(zhe)對鋰電(dian)自行車產品有一定的了解(jie)，且城市(shi)化(hua)(hua)程度(du)高，對輕便電(dian)動(dong)自行車的需求旺盛。另外，平原或小丘陵區域(yu)也(ye)是鋰電(dian)自行車的主要市(shi)場。鋰電(dian)自行車的主要消(xiao)費(fei)(fei)人群(qun)為白領(ling)階層、離退休老同(tong)志、學生(sheng)等(deng)，隨著鋰電(dian)自行車產品的普及，主要消(xiao)費(fei)(fei)人群(qun)將(jiang)會進(jin)一步擴大(da)，逐(zhu)漸覆蓋所有年齡(ling)段、多(duo)數職(zhi)業的消(xiao)費(fei)(fei)者(zhe)。

業內(nei)人(ren)士表示，在今后相當一段(duan)時期(qi)內(nei)，鋰電(dian)(dian)自(zi)行(xing)車是(shi)(shi)(shi)中(zhong)國電(dian)(dian)動兩輪非機動車的(de)發展方向，是(shi)(shi)(shi)電(dian)(dian)動自(zi)行(xing)車生產(chan)(chan)(chan)企業產(chan)(chan)(chan)品結構調整、產(chan)(chan)(chan)品技術(shu)進步的(de)重點，是(shi)(shi)(shi)企業掌(zhang)控(kong)電(dian)(dian)動自(zi)行(xing)車核心技術(shu)、增加產(chan)(chan)(chan)品附加值的(de)關鍵(jian)產(chan)(chan)(chan)品，是(shi)(shi)(shi)企業把控(kong)電(dian)(dian)動自(zi)行(xing)車市場(chang)制高點，在激(ji)烈市場(chang)競(jing)爭中(zhong)立于不敗之(zhi)地的(de)最佳產(chan)(chan)(chan)品選擇。

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