一、電動自行車用鋰電池發展現狀

（一(yi)）鋰電自行(xing)車在國(guo)內發展現狀

      目(mu)前，鋰電池應(ying)用于電動自(zi)行(xing)(xing)車已(yi)經較為(wei)(wei)(wei)普遍，每年(nian)在國內(nei)生產與銷售的電動自(zi)行(xing)(xing)車產品(pin)當中，已(yi)經有超過(guo)幾十萬輛采用了鋰電池作為(wei)(wei)(wei)動力驅(qu)動。2006年(nian)，國內(nei)鋰電自(zi)行(xing)(xing)車產銷量約為(wei)(wei)(wei)4萬輛左(zuo)右(you)，而到2010年(nian)，這一數字已(yi)經達到了12萬輛。

雖然電動車用鋰電池在產銷量上每年都在增長，但相對于鉛酸蓄電(dian)池的份額，鋰電自行車在所有電動自行車中所占的比重只有4%，處于較低的水平。

據行(xing)業人士估計，目前中國(guo)電(dian)(dian)動自行(xing)車行(xing)業的(de)發(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)趨(qu)向于鋰電(dian)(dian)車將(jiang)取代部分鉛酸車的(de)發(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)方向，因此，鋰電(dian)(dian)自行(xing)車預計將(jiang)在幾年之(zhi)內突(tu)破百(bai)萬輛。

（二(er)）、鋰(li)電自行車在國際市場的發展現(xian)狀

由于國外對電動自行車產品需求的特殊性，鋰電自行車在國際市場的受歡迎程度高于國內，從相關數據中我們可以看出，國內鋰電自行車從2006年出口1萬輛發展到2010年的28.2萬輛，其增長速度較快。
因此，對于鋰電市場來說，呈現出了一個鮮明的特征，即外銷的增長快于內銷增長，外貿企業的發展也快于內貿企業。

目前，國內有眾多鋰(li)(li)電(dian)池、鋰(li)(li)電(dian)自行車(che)生(sheng)產企(qi)(qi)業(ye)將(jiang)主要市(shi)場(chang)定位于國際(ji)市(shi)場(chang)，在(zai)電(dian)動(dong)自行車(che)整(zheng)車(che)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)中，力霸皇、新日、綠源、捷奧比、途爾、喜德盛(sheng)、捷安特、寶(bao)島等(deng)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)都(dou)以專業(ye)生(sheng)產鋰(li)(li)電(dian)自行車(che)為(wei)方向，并著力開拓海(hai)外鋰(li)(li)電(dian)市(shi)場(chang)，這部分企(qi)(qi)業(ye)的(de)鋰(li)(li)電(dian)自行車(che)產品在(zai)國際(ji)市(shi)場(chang)的(de)出口量占有很大比例。

二、電動自行車行業(ye)鋰電板塊格局、品牌(pai)格局

（一）中(zhong)國電(dian)動自行車用鋰(li)電(dian)產業板塊格局

中國(guo)鋰(li)電(dian)產業(ye)經過多年的(de)(de)發展，目前已(yi)經形成了(le)包括江蘇(su)、浙江、上(shang)海(hai)、天津、廣東等(deng)幾(ji)(ji)大板塊，在(zai)這幾(ji)(ji)大區域內，集(ji)中分(fen)布著(zhu)眾多鋰(li)電(dian)池生(sheng)產企業(ye)與鋰(li)電(dian)自行車生(sheng)產企業(ye)。幾(ji)(ji)大板塊在(zai)產銷量(liang)上(shang)的(de)(de)狀(zhuang)況為，蘇(su)錫常地區占(zhan)據45%的(de)(de)市(shi)場(chang)，浙江永康占(zhan)20%，上(shang)海(hai)占(zhan)15%，天津占(zhan)15%，深圳占(zhan)5%。

       幾大板塊中，江蘇板塊以鋰電池產(chan)(chan)品(pin)的(de)研發、設計為(wei)特(te)(te)色，特(te)(te)別是在蘇州(zhou)、昆山等(deng)地(di)，外資企(qi)(qi)業(ye)眾多，這(zhe)些企(qi)(qi)業(ye)引進國外先(xian)進研發技(ji)(ji)術，成為(wei)其最(zui)突出的(de)優(you)勢，江蘇板(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)塊(kuai)(kuai)(kuai)主(zhu)要(yao)分布著捷(jie)奧比、星恒等(deng)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)；天(tian)(tian)津板(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)塊(kuai)(kuai)(kuai)由于一直(zhi)以(yi)來作為(wei)自行(xing)車企(qi)(qi)業(ye)的(de)集(ji)聚(ju)地(di)，其生產(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)力一直(zhi)位(wei)于電(dian)動車行(xing)業(ye)的(de)前(qian)列，因此(ci)，天(tian)(tian)津板(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)塊(kuai)(kuai)(kuai)以(yi)制(zhi)造方面(mian)的(de)優(you)勢為(wei)鋰電(dian)產(chan)(chan)業(ye)帶來了發展的(de)可(ke)能(neng)(neng)(neng)性，天(tian)(tian)津板(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)塊(kuai)(kuai)(kuai)主(zhu)要(yao)分布著科斯特(te)(te)、美(mei)麗行(xing)等(deng)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)；廣(guang)(guang)東板(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)塊(kuai)(kuai)(kuai)憑借深圳這(zhe)一電(dian)子科技(ji)(ji)最(zui)為(wei)發達的(de)基地(di)，匯(hui)集(ji)了包括研發、生產(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)力領(ling)先(xian)的(de)眾多企(qi)(qi)業(ye)，這(zhe)也為(wei)廣(guang)(guang)東板(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)塊(kuai)(kuai)(kuai)鋰電(dian)產(chan)(chan)業(ye)的(de)發展奠定(ding)了基礎，廣(guang)(guang)東板(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)塊(kuai)(kuai)(kuai)主(zhu)要(yao)分布著喜德盛(sheng)、精(jing)進能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)、毅力能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)等(deng)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)。

（二）中國電動自行(xing)車用鋰電行(xing)業品牌格(ge)局

中(zhong)國(guo)電(dian)動自行車(che)用(yong)鋰(li)電(dian)池(chi)行業(ye)相對并不成熟，品牌數量也(ye)并不多。鋰(li)電(dian)自行車(che)企(qi)業(ye)中(zhong)，一(yi)部分(fen)是(shi)從(cong)傳(chuan)統(tong)自行車(che)企(qi)業(ye)轉型(xing)而來(lai)(lai)，另一(yi)部分(fen)從(cong)鉛酸(suan)電(dian)動車(che)橫向擴(kuo)張而來(lai)(lai)，主要企(qi)業(ye)有(you)：捷安特、阿米尼、新日、飛鴿(ge)、凱特、順地、雅哥弟、大(da)(da)行、力(li)(li)霸王(wang)、途爾、普利司通、捷奧比(bi)、喜德(de)盛(sheng)、小羚(ling)羊(yang)、綠能(neng)、卡摩等，其中(zhong)，市(shi)場(chang)占有(you)率最(zui)大(da)(da)的品牌是(shi)捷安特與飛鴿(ge)。電(dian)動自行車(che)用(yong)鋰(li)電(dian)池(chi)生產(chan)企(qi)業(ye)中(zhong)，一(yi)部分(fen)是(shi)從(cong)生產(chan)鉛酸(suan)蓄(xu)電(dian)池(chi)轉型(xing)而來(lai)(lai)，另一(yi)部分(fen)則是(shi)專門從(cong)事鋰(li)電(dian)池(chi)研(yan)發與生產(chan)的企(qi)業(ye)，主要有(you)：星恒、比(bi)亞迪、迪耐特、潤峰、天能(neng)、振龍、萬好(hao)萬家(jia)、光宇、中(zhong)投、精(jing)進能(neng)源(yuan)、漢維、力(li)(li)神、毅力(li)(li)、雷天、同(tong)大(da)(da)、航力(li)(li)源(yuan)、雙一(yi)力(li)(li)、捷威、德(de)朗能(neng)、南都等。近年來(lai)(lai)，由(you)于(yu)國(guo)家(jia)對新能(neng)源(yuan)產(chan)業(ye)的支持力(li)(li)度加大(da)(da)，對“超標(biao)”電(dian)動車(che)的加強管(guan)理(li)，以及(ji)對全國(guo)范圍內鉛酸(suan)蓄(xu)電(dian)池(chi)行業(ye)的整治(zhi)，使(shi)得(de)鋰(li)電(dian)產(chan)業(ye)獲(huo)得(de)了一(yi)定的機遇(yu)，眾多企(qi)業(ye)加入(ru)到鋰(li)電(dian)池(chi)產(chan)品的開(kai)發與生產(chan)中(zhong)來(lai)(lai)，市(shi)場(chang)上涌現出(chu)一(yi)批新興品牌。

三、影(ying)響鋰電自行(xing)車推廣(guang)的因素分析

（一）產品售后服(fu)務不夠完(wan)善(shan)

首(shou)先由于(yu)鋰電(dian)自行(xing)(xing)車(che)(che)渠道方(fang)面(mian)發育程度低(di)，產品的(de)售(shou)(shou)后(hou)服(fu)務(wu)并不完善，解決消費者的(de)后(hou)顧之憂仍然有一(yi)定的(de)空間。造(zao)成(cheng)(cheng)這一(yi)問題的(de)因(yin)素有很多，鋰電(dian)自行(xing)(xing)車(che)(che)與(yu)鋰電(dian)池企業的(de)售(shou)(shou)后(hou)服(fu)務(wu)網絡少(shao)，消費者有問題找不到(dao)地方(fang)修(xiu)；鋰電(dian)自行(xing)(xing)車(che)(che)售(shou)(shou)后(hou)服(fu)務(wu)配件少(shao)，鋰電(dian)池維護(hu)必須拿回工廠(chang)維護(hu)；此外，用(yong)于(yu)維護(hu)的(de)備用(yong)鋰電(dian)池少(shao)。另外，售(shou)(shou)后(hou)服(fu)務(wu)的(de)不及時、售(shou)(shou)后(hou)人員業務(wu)不熟練等原因(yin)都是(shi)造(zao)成(cheng)(cheng)消費者對鋰電(dian)自行(xing)(xing)車(che)(che)存在(zai)后(hou)顧之憂的(de)原因(yin)。

（二(er)）鋰離(li)子電(dian)池(chi)組的(de)安全性和質量的(de)穩(wen)定性

鋰離子電池組的安全性是鋰電自行車發展成敗的關鍵。目前鋰電池技術方面存在過流、過充、過熱，擠壓、針刺、短路等幾大問題，因此，要提高鋰電池的安全性，必須從這幾方面著手。另一方面，鋰離子電池單級質量的穩定性是制約鋰電自行車推廣的根本原因。目前需要解決的問題有：鋰電池內電阻一致性、鋰電池內電壓一致性、鋰電池電容量一致性；其次，鋰離子電池組裝配工藝的可靠性是影響鋰電自行車推廣的重要因素，其中包括：鋰電池組焊接的可靠性、鋰電池組保護系統焊接的可靠性。目前，電動自行車用鋰電池產品采用的標準為QB/T 2947.3-2009《電動自行車用蓄電池及充電器第3部分(fen)：鋰(li)(li)離(li)子蓄電池(chi)及充(chong)電器》，在這一標(biao)準的基礎上，鋰(li)(li)電池(chi)產品的通用(yong)性(xing)、互換性(xing)、一致性(xing)等仍需要得到進一步規范(fan)。

（三）鋰電自行(xing)車渠道(dao)的完善(shan)性

鋰(li)電(dian)(dian)應(ying)用于(yu)電(dian)(dian)動自(zi)(zi)行(xing)車(che)(che)的(de)(de)(de)(de)時(shi)間(jian)并不長(chang)，生(sheng)產鋰(li)電(dian)(dian)自(zi)(zi)行(xing)車(che)(che)的(de)(de)(de)(de)技術門檻也相對(dui)(dui)較高，因此(ci)，鋰(li)電(dian)(dian)自(zi)(zi)行(xing)車(che)(che)的(de)(de)(de)(de)價格一直居高不下，影響了其(qi)銷量的(de)(de)(de)(de)增長(chang)。目前(qian)鋰(li)電(dian)(dian)自(zi)(zi)行(xing)車(che)(che)的(de)(de)(de)(de)市(shi)場(chang)相對(dui)(dui)于(yu)鉛(qian)酸(suan)車(che)(che)來說相對(dui)(dui)較小，而專業銷售鋰(li)電(dian)(dian)自(zi)(zi)行(xing)車(che)(che)的(de)(de)(de)(de)代理商(shang)也并不多(duo)，渠道(dao)網絡的(de)(de)(de)(de)拓展(zhan)(zhan)與完(wan)善依然是目前(qian)鋰(li)電(dian)(dian)自(zi)(zi)行(xing)車(che)(che)發展(zhan)(zhan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)重心。由(you)于(yu)國內市(shi)場(chang)需(xu)求的(de)(de)(de)(de)有(you)限性(xing)(xing)，需(xu)要鋰(li)電(dian)(dian)自(zi)(zi)行(xing)車(che)(che)產品有(you)合理的(de)(de)(de)(de)利(li)潤來支持渠道(dao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)發展(zhan)(zhan)，避免與鉛(qian)酸(suan)車(che)(che)市(shi)場(chang)一樣打價格戰，并在(zai)此(ci)基(ji)礎上(shang)要有(you)再投入的(de)(de)(de)(de)部分(fen)。在(zai)保證(zheng)鋰(li)電(dian)(dian)自(zi)(zi)行(xing)車(che)(che)渠道(dao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)完(wan)善性(xing)(xing)上(shang)，售后服(fu)務的(de)(de)(de)(de)有(you)效(xiao)性(xing)(xing)的(de)(de)(de)(de)最關鍵因素，其(qi)中包括(kuo)：整(zheng)車(che)(che)和(he)零部件(jian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)保修承諾、整(zheng)車(che)(che)和(he)零部件(jian)維修更換的(de)(de)(de)(de)及(ji)時(shi)性(xing)(xing)、售后服(fu)務的(de)(de)(de)(de)主動性(xing)(xing)和(he)有(you)效(xiao)性(xing)(xing)。除此(ci)之外(wai)，渠道(dao)商(shang)還肩負著推廣鋰(li)電(dian)(dian)自(zi)(zi)行(xing)車(che)(che)的(de)(de)(de)(de)重任。

（四）鋰電(dian)自行車(che)產(chan)品(pin)價格偏(pian)高

目前鋰電(dian)池(chi)(chi)(chi)電(dian)動(dong)(dong)自行(xing)車(che)(che)的(de)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格普(pu)遍比鉛酸電(dian)池(chi)(chi)(chi)電(dian)動(dong)(dong)車(che)(che)高出幾百元(yuan)到(dao)一千(qian)元(yuan)，大(da)(da)(da)多數消費者難以接受與鉛酸車(che)(che)如(ru)此大(da)(da)(da)的(de)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格差距，因(yin)此銷量并不大(da)(da)(da)。鋰電(dian)自行(xing)車(che)(che)雖然(ran)有明顯的(de)優勢，但鋰電(dian)成(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)導致的(de)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格居高不下，成(cheng)(cheng)了制約其發(fa)展的(de)最(zui)大(da)(da)(da)因(yin)素，一組(zu)36V鋰電(dian)池(chi)(chi)(chi)在國內市(shi)場(chang)售價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)為1500元(yuan)左(zuo)右(you)，加(jia)(jia)上(shang)配件等，一般(ban)生產成(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)在2800元(yuan)以上(shang)，若(ruo)再加(jia)(jia)上(shang)營銷等其他(ta)成(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)，其價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格還(huan)遠(yuan)不止(zhi)這個數字，現北京市(shi)場(chang)上(shang)銷售的(de)鋰電(dian)車(che)(che)普(pu)遍價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格為3200－3800元(yuan)。業內人士認為，鋰電(dian)池(chi)(chi)(chi)輕巧(qiao)、環保(bao)，廢(fei)棄后不會產生環境污染，一旦應用技術成(cheng)(cheng)熟，市(shi)場(chang)銷量加(jia)(jia)大(da)(da)(da)，鋰電(dian)池(chi)(chi)(chi)電(dian)動(dong)(dong)自行(xing)車(che)(che)的(de)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格肯定會降下來。

（五）鋰電池充電器和電池保護功能的完善(shan)

鋰電池電動自行車的品質，在很大程度上還是依賴于電動車充電器和(he)(he)電(dian)池保護體的(de)(de)品(pin)質(zhi)，只有(you)當充(chong)電(dian)器和(he)(he)電(dian)池保護板的(de)(de)品(pin)質(zhi)可靠(kao)性(xing)和(he)(he)穩定性(xing)提高了(le)，整體的(de)(de)市(shi)場(chang)銷(xiao)售量自然就(jiu)增加了(le)。

四、電動自行(xing)車用鋰電池(chi)發展前景(jing)分(fen)析(xi)

（一）鋰電(dian)自行車將逐漸普

及(ji)目(mu)前被看(kan)好的(de)(de)(de)(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)自(zi)(zi)行(xing)(xing)(xing)車(che)(che)(che)(che)用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)新(xin)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源有3種(zhong)：鋰離子(zi)(zi)蓄電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)、氫鎳蓄電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)、鋅空氣電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)，而(er)鋰離子(zi)(zi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)發展前景被普遍認同。在安全性好、循(xun)環(huan)性能好、比(bi)(bi)容量高的(de)(de)(de)(de)新(xin)型(xing)價(jia)廉(lian)正極(ji)材(cai)料(liao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)發展的(de)(de)(de)(de)推動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)下，電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)自(zi)(zi)行(xing)(xing)(xing)車(che)(che)(che)(che)車(che)(che)(che)(che)用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)鋰離子(zi)(zi)蓄電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)已接近實(shi)(shi)用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)。有幾家公(gong)司已可提供較成熟(shu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)、裝(zhuang)有電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)管(guan)理系統(tong)（BMS）的(de)(de)(de)(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)自(zi)(zi)行(xing)(xing)(xing)車(che)(che)(che)(che)車(che)(che)(che)(che)用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)鋰離子(zi)(zi)蓄電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)。也(ye)有專(zhuan)門生產車(che)(che)(che)(che)用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)鋰電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)蓄電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)自(zi)(zi)行(xing)(xing)(xing)車(che)(che)(che)(che)的(de)(de)(de)(de)廠家。很多業內人(ren)士(shi)認為，電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)自(zi)(zi)行(xing)(xing)(xing)車(che)(che)(che)(che)用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)鋰電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)將是(shi)(shi)首先商業化，成為大(da)(da)(da)批量在車(che)(che)(che)(che)上使用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)力型(xing)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)，它將是(shi)(shi)繼鉛酸蓄電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)之后所占比(bi)(bi)例(li)較大(da)(da)(da)的(de)(de)(de)(de)實(shi)(shi)用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)化電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)，也(ye)將成為用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)于高端電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)自(zi)(zi)行(xing)(xing)(xing)車(che)(che)(che)(che)產品的(de)(de)(de)(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)。業內人(ren)士(shi)表示(shi)，節能環(huan)保是(shi)(shi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)自(zi)(zi)行(xing)(xing)(xing)車(che)(che)(che)(che)的(de)(de)(de)(de)發展方(fang)向(xiang)，隨著(zhu)技(ji)術的(de)(de)(de)(de)進步，鋰電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)自(zi)(zi)行(xing)(xing)(xing)車(che)(che)(che)(che)有望取代目(mu)前的(de)(de)(de)(de)鉛酸電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)自(zi)(zi)行(xing)(xing)(xing)車(che)(che)(che)(che)。鋰電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)輕(qing)巧、環(huan)保，廢棄后不(bu)會(hui)產生環(huan)境污染，一旦應用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)技(ji)術成熟(shu)，市場銷量加大(da)(da)(da)，鋰電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)自(zi)(zi)行(xing)(xing)(xing)車(che)(che)(che)(che)的(de)(de)(de)(de)價(jia)格肯定會(hui)降下來。

（二）鋰電自(zi)行車行業(ye)環(huan)境變化(hua)

近幾年(nian)來(lai)，政(zheng)府加強了對(dui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)動(dong)(dong)自行(xing)車(che)管理，將(jiang)部(bu)(bu)分(fen)(fen)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)動(dong)(dong)車(che)產(chan)品列入了“超(chao)標(biao)”范疇(chou)，這使(shi)得(de)(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)動(dong)(dong)車(che)輕量化(hua)趨勢得(de)(de)到進一(yi)步推動(dong)(dong)，特別(bie)是今(jin)年(nian)3月份，國(guo)家(jia)(jia)四(si)部(bu)(bu)委聯合發文限期淘汰“超(chao)標(biao)”電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)動(dong)(dong)車(che)，更(geng)(geng)(geng)使(shi)這一(yi)政(zheng)策對(dui)部(bu)(bu)分(fen)(fen)企業造成影響。在這一(yi)大環境下，鋰電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)自行(xing)車(che)的(de)(de)(de)(de)優(you)勢得(de)(de)到了充分(fen)(fen)體現，輕便、小巧的(de)(de)(de)(de)鋰電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)自行(xing)車(che)在全國(guo)范圍內淘汰“超(chao)標(biao)”電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)動(dong)(dong)車(che)的(de)(de)(de)(de)背(bei)景下，得(de)(de)到了更(geng)(geng)(geng)多消費者的(de)(de)(de)(de)認(ren)可。并且，在完全符合國(guo)家(jia)(jia)標(biao)準(zhun)的(de)(de)(de)(de)前提(ti)下，鋰電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)自行(xing)車(che)市場必(bi)將(jiang)會得(de)(de)到更(geng)(geng)(geng)進一(yi)步的(de)(de)(de)(de)增長(chang)。另一(yi)方(fang)(fang)面，今(jin)年(nian)以來(lai)，國(guo)家(jia)(jia)加強了對(dui)鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)酸(suan)蓄電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池生(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)企業的(de)(de)(de)(de)管理，對(dui)全國(guo)大多數鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)酸(suan)蓄電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池企業進行(xing)整(zheng)頓，截至2011年(nian)7月31日，各地共排查(cha)鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)蓄電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池生(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)、組(zu)裝及(ji)回收（再(zai)生(sheng)(sheng)鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)）企業1930家(jia)(jia)，其中，被取締關閉583家(jia)(jia)、停(ting)(ting)產(chan)整(zheng)治405家(jia)(jia)、停(ting)(ting)產(chan)610家(jia)(jia)；有252家(jia)(jia)企業在生(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)，80家(jia)(jia)在建。鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)酸(suan)蓄電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池被全面整(zheng)頓，一(yi)方(fang)(fang)面說(shuo)明鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)酸(suan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池在某些方(fang)(fang)面存在著缺陷，另一(yi)方(fang)(fang)面也說(shuo)明，電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)動(dong)(dong)車(che)行(xing)業急(ji)需尋求(qiu)一(yi)種更(geng)(geng)(geng)新型、更(geng)(geng)(geng)環保(bao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池產(chan)品，而鋰電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池便是其中最好的(de)(de)(de)(de)選(xuan)擇。

（三）鋰電自行車產(chan)品(pin)附加值

鋰(li)電(dian)(dian)自(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)行(xing)車(che)(che)(che)(che)產品附加值(zhi)將(jiang)在(zai)五年內得到明顯提升(sheng)(sheng)。鋰(li)電(dian)(dian)自(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)行(xing)車(che)(che)(che)(che)產品的附加值(zhi)體(ti)現在(zai)以下幾(ji)個方面(mian)：鋰(li)電(dian)(dian)池的安(an)全性(xing)與一致性(xing)、鋰(li)電(dian)(dian)自(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)行(xing)車(che)(che)(che)(che)的一次(ci)充電(dian)(dian)續行(xing)里程與鋰(li)電(dian)(dian)池的使用壽命、鋰(li)電(dian)(dian)自(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)行(xing)車(che)(che)(che)(che)的輕量化、鋰(li)電(dian)(dian)自(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)行(xing)車(che)(che)(che)(che)的智(zhi)能化技術與傳感技術，此外，鋰(li)電(dian)(dian)自(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)行(xing)車(che)(che)(che)(che)的售后服務等方面(mian)也(ye)是產品附加值(zhi)的重要一部分。隨著電(dian)(dian)動自(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)行(xing)車(che)(che)(che)(che)用鋰(li)電(dian)(dian)池產品的發展，鋰(li)電(dian)(dian)自(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)行(xing)車(che)(che)(che)(che)產品也(ye)將(jiang)逐(zhu)漸走向成(cheng)熟，因(yin)此，唯有(you)掌握鋰(li)電(dian)(dian)自(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)行(xing)車(che)(che)(che)(che)核(he)心技術，才能真(zhen)正有(you)效地提升(sheng)(sheng)其產品附加值(zhi)。未來(lai)幾(ji)年內，鋰(li)電(dian)(dian)自(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)行(xing)車(che)(che)(che)(che)將(jiang)不斷提升(sheng)(sheng)產品檔次(ci)，不斷開發迎合市場需求的產品。

五、電動自(zi)行(xing)車用鋰電池(chi)行(xing)業發展(zhan)趨勢

（一(yi)）質量提(ti)升(sheng)與(yu)技(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)突破(po)。鋰(li)(li)電池(chi)的(de)(de)技(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)不成熟性(xing)使得鋰(li)(li)電產品的(de)(de)安全(quan)性(xing)存在缺陷，以及(ji)價格居高不下(xia)，從而(er)影響了鋰(li)(li)電自(zi)(zi)行(xing)車(che)(che)的(de)(de)普及(ji)率，因此，未來幾年內(nei)，鋰(li)(li)電自(zi)(zi)行(xing)車(che)(che)的(de)(de)發(fa)展趨勢為技(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)突破(po)與(yu)成本控制，而(er)鋰(li)(li)蓄電池(chi)安全(quan)控制技(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)和(he)(he)充電技(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)的(de)(de)提(ti)升(sheng)將(jiang)進一(yi)步提(ti)高鋰(li)(li)電自(zi)(zi)行(xing)車(che)(che)的(de)(de)安全(quan)性(xing)和(he)(he)可靠性(xing)。

（二）高(gao)(gao)(gao)速(su)電(dian)機(ji)在(zai)鋰電(dian)自行車上的(de)應用。高(gao)(gao)(gao)速(su)電(dian)機(ji)通(tong)(tong)常(chang)是(shi)(shi)指(zhi)轉(zhuan)速(su)超過10000r/min的(de)電(dian)機(ji)。它們具有(you)以(yi)下優點：一(yi)是(shi)(shi)由于(yu)轉(zhuan)速(su)高(gao)(gao)(gao)，所以(yi)電(dian)機(ji)功率(lv)密度高(gao)(gao)(gao)，而體積(ji)遠(yuan)小于(yu)功率(lv)普通(tong)(tong)的(de)電(dian)機(ji)，可(ke)以(yi)有(you)效(xiao)(xiao)的(de)節(jie)約材(cai)料。二是(shi)(shi)可(ke)與原動(dong)機(ji)相連，取消(xiao)了傳(chuan)統的(de)減速(su)機(ji)構(gou)，傳(chuan)動(dong)效(xiao)(xiao)率(lv)高(gao)(gao)(gao)，噪音(yin)小。三是(shi)(shi)由于(yu)高(gao)(gao)(gao)速(su)電(dian)機(ji)轉(zhuan)動(dong)慣量小，所以(yi)動(dong)態(tai)相應快。高(gao)(gao)(gao)速(su)電(dian)機(ji)在(zai)鋰電(dian)自行車上的(de)應用將是(shi)(shi)今后鋰電(dian)自行車發展(zhan)的(de)趨(qu)勢之一(yi)，這一(yi)應用將有(you)效(xiao)(xiao)地提高(gao)(gao)(gao)鋰電(dian)池的(de)使用壽命，并提高(gao)(gao)(gao)電(dian)機(ji)效(xiao)(xiao)率(lv)。

（三）智能傳(chuan)感(gan)(gan)(gan)技(ji)術的發展與應用(yong)。智能傳(chuan)感(gan)(gan)(gan)器是(shi)指由微處(chu)理器（或微計算機(ji)）及相關電路組成的傳(chuan)感(gan)(gan)(gan)裝置，智能傳(chuan)感(gan)(gan)(gan)技(ji)術的發展與應用(yong)將增加鋰電自行車的高科(ke)技(ji)含量，使電動車更智能，騎行更便捷(jie)，智能傳(chuan)感(gan)(gan)(gan)技(ji)術包括：力(li)矩傳(chuan)感(gan)(gan)(gan)技(ji)術、霍爾傳(chuan)感(gan)(gan)(gan)技(ji)術，以及光電傳(chuan)感(gan)(gan)(gan)技(ji)術。

（四）鋰電(dian)(dian)自行(xing)車(che)(che)的(de)(de)(de)輕(qing)量(liang)化(hua)發展。鋰電(dian)(dian)自行(xing)車(che)(che)相(xiang)對于鉛(qian)酸(suan)車(che)(che)來(lai)說，擁有顯著(zhu)的(de)(de)(de)輕(qing)量(liang)化(hua)的(de)(de)(de)特點。在此基礎上(shang)，今后(hou)鋰電(dian)(dian)自行(xing)車(che)(che)的(de)(de)(de)這一特點將更加明顯，采(cai)用輕(qing)型(xing)材料(liao)的(de)(de)(de)鋰電(dian)(dian)自行(xing)車(che)(che)將更加輕(qing)便小巧。其中，輕(qing)型(xing)材料(liao)主要有：鋁合(he)金(jin)車(che)(che)架、碳纖維車(che)(che)架、鎂合(he)金(jin)車(che)(che)架、鈦合(he)金(jin)車(che)(che)架等。

（五）鋰(li)電(dian)(dian)自(zi)行(xing)(xing)車(che)市(shi)(shi)場(chang)需(xu)求變(bian)化。鋰(li)電(dian)(dian)自(zi)行(xing)(xing)車(che)產(chan)品(pin)將在未來幾年內得到更多(duo)消(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)(fei)者的(de)(de)(de)認可(ke)，市(shi)(shi)場(chang)需(xu)求將加速擴(kuo)大。主(zhu)要(yao)(yao)銷售區域為各省會(hui)城市(shi)(shi)與沿海發(fa)達地區，這部分(fen)區域的(de)(de)(de)消(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)(fei)者對鋰(li)電(dian)(dian)自(zi)行(xing)(xing)車(che)產(chan)品(pin)有一定的(de)(de)(de)了解，且(qie)城市(shi)(shi)化程度高，對輕便電(dian)(dian)動自(zi)行(xing)(xing)車(che)的(de)(de)(de)需(xu)求旺盛。另(ling)外，平原(yuan)或小丘陵區域也(ye)是鋰(li)電(dian)(dian)自(zi)行(xing)(xing)車(che)的(de)(de)(de)主(zhu)要(yao)(yao)市(shi)(shi)場(chang)。鋰(li)電(dian)(dian)自(zi)行(xing)(xing)車(che)的(de)(de)(de)主(zhu)要(yao)(yao)消(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)(fei)人群為白領階層、離(li)退休老同志、學生等，隨著鋰(li)電(dian)(dian)自(zi)行(xing)(xing)車(che)產(chan)品(pin)的(de)(de)(de)普及，主(zhu)要(yao)(yao)消(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)(fei)人群將會(hui)進一步擴(kuo)大，逐漸(jian)覆蓋(gai)所有年齡段、多(duo)數職業的(de)(de)(de)消(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)(fei)者。

業內(nei)人士表示，在今后相(xiang)當一(yi)段時期內(nei)，鋰電自(zi)行車(che)(che)是(shi)中國(guo)電動(dong)兩(liang)輪非機(ji)動(dong)車(che)(che)的(de)發展方(fang)向(xiang)，是(shi)電動(dong)自(zi)行車(che)(che)生產企(qi)業產品(pin)(pin)(pin)結(jie)構調整、產品(pin)(pin)(pin)技(ji)術進步的(de)重(zhong)點，是(shi)企(qi)業掌(zhang)控(kong)電動(dong)自(zi)行車(che)(che)核心(xin)技(ji)術、增(zeng)加產品(pin)(pin)(pin)附加值的(de)關鍵產品(pin)(pin)(pin)，是(shi)企(qi)業把控(kong)電動(dong)自(zi)行車(che)(che)市場制高點，在激烈市場競爭中立于(yu)不敗(bai)之地的(de)最佳產品(pin)(pin)(pin)選(xuan)擇。

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